NYT/CBS Poll: Fallin up 9%, Lankford and Inhofe lead by 20%+

A new CBS/New York Times/YouGov poll finds Oklahoma's top Republican candidates all leading their Democratic opponents by substantial margins, particularly in the Senate races. U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe (R) holds a 24-point lead over Matt Silverstein (D), while James Lankford (R) leads Democratic runoff candidates Connie Johnson (D) and Jim Rogers (D) by 23% and 27%, respectively.

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In the gubernatorial race, Governor Mary Fallin (R) is leading Joe Dorman (D) 49%-40% (leaners included). The crosstabs for this race are particularly interesting -- I hope to go into them in more detail in another post soon.

View the full article and crosstabs for this national poll here.

Dutcher: Hofmeister, OK GOP voters support educational choice

OCPA Senior Vice-President and blogger Brandon Dutcher wrote a recent column in the Edmond Sun addressing a recent statewide survey that finds Oklahoma Republican voters strongly support educational choice. From Dutcher's blog:

Interestingly, the Tarrance survey found that those voters backing Joy Hofmeister for state school superintendent favor educational choice by a wide margin (69 percent favor, while only 25 percent oppose).

Hofmeister supporters favor the Lindsey Nicole Henry Scholarships (72 percent to 20 percent), the Equal Opportunity tax-credit scholarships (68 percent to 21 percent), and Education Savings Accounts (57 percent to 33 percent). At a July 17 meeting of the Muskogee County Republicans and Conservatives Club, Hofmeister told Jamison Faught, editor of MuskogeePolitico.com, that she supports all three of those educational-choice mechanisms.

Read the rest of his column here.

Dr. Coburn to hold final town hall meetings as Senator

Dr. Coburn to Hold Final U.S. Senate Town Hall Meetings in Oklahoma

(July 24th, 2014, Washington, D.C.) – U.S. Senator Tom Coburn, M.D. (R-OK) announced today he will hold a final series of town hall meetings in the state before resigning from the U.S. Senate at the end of the current Congress.

“One of the highlights of serving as a U.S. Senator for Oklahoma is the ability to travel the state to talk to fellow Oklahomans and hear what they think about the issues we face as a nation,” Coburn said.  “It is always encouraging and inspiring to me to talk with friends and neighbors across the state.  Our people make this such a special place to live.  So many good ideas and initiatives that my office has worked on over the years have resulted from conversations at these town hall meetings.”

The town hall meetings will take place the first two full weeks in August.

Coburn concluded, “As I prepare to hold my final series of town hall meetings, I am reminded how grateful I am to the people of Oklahoma who entrusted me to serve them in Washington.  I am proud and honored to be from Oklahoma, and my hope is this series of meetings will be an opportunity to reflect on what we have accomplished together over the last decade and a chance look to the future to continue working to make sure America remains the greatest nation in the world.”

Monday, August 4, 2014

Oklahoma City Town Hall Meeting
Monday, August 4, 2014, 6:00 p.m.
Oklahoma City Community College
Visual and Performing Arts Center Theater
7777 S. May Avenue, Oklahoma City, OK  73159

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Altus Town Hall Meeting
Tuesday, August 5, 2014, 10:00 a.m.
Western Oklahoma State College
Herschal H. Crow Fine Arts Auditorium
2801 N. Main Street, Altus, OK  73521

Lawton Town Hall Meeting
Tuesday, August 5, 2014, 1:00 p.m.
Cameron University
CETES Conference Center, Building 20
2800 W. Gore Blvd., Lawton, OK  73505

Monday, August 11, 2014

Enid Town Hall Meeting
Monday, August 11, 2014, 3:00 p.m.
Enid Convention Hall
301 S. Independence, Enid, OK  73701

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Tulsa Town Hall Meeting
Wednesday, August 13, 2014, 6:00 p.m.
Tulsa Community College - Southeast Campus
VanTrease PACE
10300 E. 81st Street, Tulsa, OK  74133

Poll shocker: Fallin 45%, Dorman 40%

 In a stunner of a poll, nationally respected pollster Scott Rasmussen finds Oklahoma's incumbent Republican Governor Mary Fallin leading Democratic nominee Joe Dorman by just 5%.

Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 45%, Dorman (D) 40%

Rasmussen Reports

Republican Mary Fallin is in a surprisingly close contest for reelection in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the 2014 gubernatorial race in Oklahoma.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Oklahoma Voters finds Fallin with 45% support to Democratic state Representative Joe Dorman’s 40%. Seven percent (7%) favor some other candidate, while eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Oklahoma is rated Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports 2014 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Fallin, who previously served as lieutenant governor and a member of Congress, was elected governor in 2010 with 60% of the vote. She has long been expected to easily win reelection, but a poll released earlier this week by the Tulsa World shows Fallin’s favorables at a new low, even among her fellow Republicans.

The incumbent now has the support of 64% of Oklahoma Republicans, while 70% of the state’s Democrats favor Dorman. Fallin leads by seven points among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of all voters in the state now approve of the job Fallin is doing as governor, while 48% disapprove. This includes 20% who Strongly Approve and 28% who Strongly Disapprove.

Fallin is now viewed Very Favorably by 25% of Oklahoma voters and Very Unfavorably by 29%. For Dorman, Very Favorables are 11% and Very Unfavorables nine percent (9%). His biggest challenge at this point is name recognition: 35% of Oklahoma voters say they have never heard of him.

That’s one reason why at this point in an election cycle, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Oklahoma was conducted on July 15-16, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Read the rest here.

Map: Democrat State Superintendent Primary Results

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While I was working on the Democrat's Senate primary map, I decided to also do their State Superintendent primary. Since, the GOP side was unexpectedly lopsided (Joy Hofmeister won every county, and incumbent superintendent Janet Barresi came in third out of three candidates), I was curious to see the other side.

John Cox came out on top with 68,889 votes, Freda Deskin was a close second with 64,135, while Jack Herron had 22,335 and Ivan Holmes got 12,504. Cox and Deskin are now in a runoff, the winner of which will face Hofmeister in the general election.

Cox received over 70% of the vote in some far eastern counties, while Deskin ran in the upper 40s and low 50s in the OKC and Tulsa metros.

Oklahoma Democrat Senate Primary Map

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Just for fun, I threw together this map of the Democrat's primary, in which State Sen. Connie Johnson and perennial candidate Jim Rogers advanced to the runoff. The winner of that August 26th contest will be the Democratic nominee facing James Lankford in the general election.

Johnson received 71,462 votes to Rogers' 57,598 and Hayes' 33,943. Johnson's lead (13,864) came almost entirely from Oklahoma County (13,389 lead over Rogers).

The Oklahoma Democratic Party is in pretty sad shape when a sitting state senator can barely edge out a perennial candidate who does little-to-no campaigning.

Speaking of the ODP's "last best hope", the Oklahoman recently had a good article on Jim Rogers, which you can read here.

Hofmeister speaking in Muskogee on Thursday

From the Muskogee County GOP:

The Muskogee County Republicans & Conservatives Club will be holding their July meeting on Thursday, July 17th in the Muskogee Public Library's southeast meeting room starting at 7:00pm. Guest speaker for this event will be Joy Hofmeister, the Republican nominee for State Superintendent of Education. Come learn more about Joy's vision for education in Oklahoma, and visit with local Republicans and conservatives.

Russell gets Tea Party Express endorsement in 5th District runoff, leads Douglas by 10%

Former state senator and retired Army Lt. Col. Steve Russell, frontrunner in the 5th Congressional District Republican runoff, has had some big news in the past two weeks. First, he was endorsed by the Tea Party Express, and today he released a poll showing him with a 10-point lead.

Tea Party Express Endorses Steve Russell for Congress

Sacramento, CA – Tea Party Express, the nation’s largest Tea Party political action committee, is proud to endorse Steve Russell for Oklahoma’s Fifth Congressional District.

Tea Party Express Executive Director Taylor Budowich said, “Steve Russell is exactly the kind of conservative leader we need to send to Congress. For 21-years Steve courageously defended the Constitution and protected our country as an Army Ranger. As a Lietutenant Colonel, Steve’s ability to lead, even in the face of danger and opposition is unquestioned.

“After serving our country in the military, Steve went on to serve Oklahomans in the State Senate. He fought to reduce taxes and protect the Constitution. After four years of service in the legislature, Steve decided to start a small rifle manufacturing business. At every turn Steve has worked to protect his country and improve his community. He is a dedicated public servant and a bold conservative,” Budowich concluded.

Read the rest of the press release here, complete with comments from various Oklahoma Tea Party leaders across the state.

Poll shows Steve Russell has commanding lead in 5th District Runoff

Lt. Col. Steve Russell, GOP Candidate for Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District, shows a 10-point lead in a new poll released today. The poll was conducted by the JMC Enterprises on July 8th and sampled 419 voters in the 5th District.

The results are:
Lt. Col. Steve Russell: 41%
Patrice Douglas: 31%
Undecided: 28%
Margin of Error: +/-4.8%

“I am happy to see the voters of the 5th District responding to our positive campaign,” Steve Russell says. “This momentum is because the people believe that our country is still worth fighting for. I’m optimistic about our future and I think the voters join me in that feeling.”

Steve Russell won the June 24th GOP Primary with 26.6% of the vote in a six-person race. It appears he will maintain that lead into the runoff election on August 26th.

“We’ve had a great time meeting and speaking with voters almost every day,” says Russell. “I appreciate the groundswell of support from each and every one of them. Oklahomans want leaders to represent them in Washington who know how to get things done. I will not let them down.”

TheOkie.com has more of the crosstabs information here.

Outside groups blame AH Strategies, Fount Holland for Shannon's loss

Fount Holland: founder of AH Strategies and main consultant 

for T.W. Shannon's Senate campaign

From TheOkie:

Consultants cast blame for T.W. Shannon disappointment

By Tarini Parti

For a candidate who was seen as a future star in the Republican Party, T.W. Shannon’s campaign was “operating like it was 1998,” according to consultants working on the race — ultimately leading to the highly-touted Oklahoma Senate hopeful’s blowout loss to Rep. James Lankford in Tuesday’s primary.

Shannon’s choice of campaign consultants, strategy, ground game and digital efforts — or lack thereof — are all being blamed in part for his stunningly-decisive defeat, according to some Republican consultants close to the campaign who view the former state House speaker’s failure to even push the race to a runoff as a wasted opportunity for a candidate that just two months ago was attracting extensive national attention and exciting the conservative base.

Lankford, linked to the establishment through his position in House leadership, defeated Shannon, 57 percent to 34 percent, easily avoiding the expected August 26 runoff in the race for the GOP nomination for retiring Sen. Tom Coburn’s seat.

The blame game in Shannon’s camp and Team Lankford’s victory lap — both grand traditions in politics — began immediately after the outcome was determined. Republicans affiliated with conservative outside groups supporting Shannon and those close to his campaign said the consulting firms the campaign hired — AH Strategies, Majority Designs, and others — were all Oklahoma-based firms whose strategy of spending every dime on TV ads and direct mail works for state races but is insufficient for a U.S. Senate race.

“They all just stuck their heads in the sand and didn’t want to listen,” said one Republican strategist close to the campaign.

Read the rest of this interesting article here.