Poll shocker: Fallin 45%, Dorman 40%

 In a stunner of a poll, nationally respected pollster Scott Rasmussen finds Oklahoma's incumbent Republican Governor Mary Fallin leading Democratic nominee Joe Dorman by just 5%.

Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 45%, Dorman (D) 40%

Rasmussen Reports

Republican Mary Fallin is in a surprisingly close contest for reelection in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the 2014 gubernatorial race in Oklahoma.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Oklahoma Voters finds Fallin with 45% support to Democratic state Representative Joe Dorman’s 40%. Seven percent (7%) favor some other candidate, while eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Oklahoma is rated Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports 2014 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Fallin, who previously served as lieutenant governor and a member of Congress, was elected governor in 2010 with 60% of the vote. She has long been expected to easily win reelection, but a poll released earlier this week by the Tulsa World shows Fallin’s favorables at a new low, even among her fellow Republicans.

The incumbent now has the support of 64% of Oklahoma Republicans, while 70% of the state’s Democrats favor Dorman. Fallin leads by seven points among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of all voters in the state now approve of the job Fallin is doing as governor, while 48% disapprove. This includes 20% who Strongly Approve and 28% who Strongly Disapprove.

Fallin is now viewed Very Favorably by 25% of Oklahoma voters and Very Unfavorably by 29%. For Dorman, Very Favorables are 11% and Very Unfavorables nine percent (9%). His biggest challenge at this point is name recognition: 35% of Oklahoma voters say they have never heard of him.

That’s one reason why at this point in an election cycle, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Oklahoma was conducted on July 15-16, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

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