Some basic points on Fallin's proposed budget

In her State of the State address yesterday, Governor Mary Fallin presented her final executive budget proposal for FY-2019. The document in full can be viewed here.

A few quick basic points:

• Total proposed budget: $7.28B
• New revenue (98% from tax hikes): $696.3M
• Cigarette tax: $231.7M
• GPT on oil and gas: $126.7M
• Little cigars and chewing tobacco: $12.2M
• Motor fuel tax: $163.4M
• GPT on wind: $19.2M
• Income tax: $129.2M
• New spending over FY-2018 budget: $723.6M
• $5000 teacher pay raise ($289M)
• $286.1M in one-time spending ($141.8 to Health Care Authority)
• $55.5M to restore transportation funding
• $25M to Mental Health for criminal justice reform
• $10.5M to Corrections
• $2M to Legislative Services Bureau for "Agency Performance and Accountability efforts"

A few other takeaways:

The strangely shrinking cigarette tax figure: in Fallin's FY2018 budget, the estimate for revenue generated by a $1.50 increase in the cigarette tax was $257.8M. During the first special session, HB1054X estimated $243.5M per year. Now, in Fallin's FY2019 budget, it's $231.7M from the same $1.50 increase.

No more efficiency? OCPA's Trent England:

More gambling is what we need? "The Step Up Oklahoma Plan includes a reform to allow Indian casinos to use balls and dice in their craps and roulette games, which will likely increase the state’s revenue from exclusivity fees. [...] It would be in the state’s best fiscal interest to consider this proposal, via the Tribal and State Gaming Compact. These efforts will maximize projected revenues for the State of Oklahoma."  That's right... if Oklahoma needs anything else, we need more gambling, more addiction, more bankruptcy, and more broken families as a result.

Step Up Oklahoma too positive on tax revenue? Governor Fallin takes up every tax hike proposed by Step Up Oklahoma in her budget proposal, but the figures her office used as estimates are lower in every category, to the tune of about $45M overall (excluding the gambling figures, which her office did not estimate).