SoonerPoll: GOP trouble? Stitt leads Hofmeister by 1, Walters trails by 5

SoonerPoll is out with two new surveys that seem to indicate some brewing trouble for GOP candidates in the two most competitive and high-profile statewide races this fall - those of Governor and State Superintendent.

Gubernatorial Poll

Survey by SoonerPoll for News9/News on 6 (link)

Conducted Sept. 2-7, survey of 402 likely voters, margin of error +/-4.89%

Question: If the upcoming November election for Governor was held TODAY and you were in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

• Kevin Stitt (R): 43.7%
• Joy Hofmeister (D): 42.7% 
• Ervin Yen (I): 3.9%
• Natalie Bruno (L): 2.6%
• Don’t Know/Undecided: 7.0%

As you may recall, a coalition of tribes and other political organizations has spent multiple millions of dollars (claiming over $10M set aside earlier this year) against Governor Stitt, and Democrats think they smell blood in the water and a chance at returned relevancy in Oklahoma due to the party switch of Joy Hofmeister.

SoonerPoll notes that:

Stitt is getting 71.3 percent of his party's support, but losing 17.5 percent to Hofmeister, who getting 83.3 percent of the Democratic vote and losing only 3.6 percent to Stitt. Independents, who make up about one in ten voters on election day, support Hofmeister 59.5 percent to only 12.7 percent for Stitt.

Stitt edges Hofmeister in the Tulsa metro (1st Congressional District) and 4th District, and leads in the 2nd District by a large margin. Hofmeister leads in the 3rd District and OKC metro (5th District).

I don't think Hofmeister can beat Stitt once the campaign really heats up and the Republican candidates and party hit the campaign trail hard, but... he has made himself vulnerable and I think it could be close.

The last gasp of the dying Democratic Party should not be taken lightly by Stitt and the OKGOP.

State Superintendent Poll

Survey by SoonerPoll for News9/News on 6 (link)

Conducted Sept. 2-7, survey of 402 likely voters, margin of error +/-4.89%

Question: If the upcoming November election for Superintendent of Public Instruction was held TODAY and you were in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice, for whom would you vote?

• Jena Nelson (D): 48.1%
• Ryan Walters (R): 43.1%
• Don’t Know/Undecided: 8.8%

Ryan Walters emerged victorious from a bruising GOP primary and runoff contest, and the effects are clearly seen by this poll. Disgruntled moderates are fleeing to the open arms of the Democratic Party's nominee, Jena Nelson.

From SoonerPoll:

More than 70 percent of Republicans say they are voting for Walters, but 19.6 percent of Republicans reported they support Nelson, indicating that Walters has yet to win the full support of his own party. Meanwhile, 91.2 percent of Democrats are behind their own nominee with only 1.8 percent of Democrats supporting Walters.

This was interesting, also from SoonerPoll's writeup:

Additional questions were asked in the same poll about which political party and its policies are best for teachers, parents and children. Likely voters believed Democrats were best for teachers by about 10 points, 42.4 to 32.8 percent, but those same poll respondents believed Republicans were best for parents, 44.1 to 31.2 percent for Democrats. By more than 12 points, poll respondents believed Republicans were best for children. 

Hofmeister was elected to this post twice as a Republican, but operated as a secret Democrat. This is once again the Democrats' best chance at a statewide seat.