Emerson Poll: Stitt leads Hofmeister by 9%

The most recent poll of the Oklahoma gubernatorial race shows incumbent Republican Kevin Stitt pulling ahead of Democrat Joy Hofmeister. Several recent surveys had shown either a narrow Hofmeister lead or an essential tie. 

Either way, this will be a close race, and every vote counts. Here's the Emerson College Polling results:

Oklahoma 2022: Governor Stitt Leads Hofmeister by Nine; Economy is Determining Issue for Voters

(October 31st, 2022) The latest Emerson College Polling survey of Oklahoma voters finds Republican Governor Kevin Stitt with 49% support for re-election, while 40% support Democrat Joy Hofmeister. Two percent support independent Ervin Stone Yen and 1% support ​​Libertarian Natalie Bruno. Eight percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Stitt’s support increases to 52% and Hofmeister to 43%. Eighty-eight percent say they will definitely vote for their candidate, while 12% say there is a chance they could change their mind before Election Day. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said: “Hofmeister is leading among Independent voters 43% to 33%, but that is not enough to make up for the Republican advantage in Oklahoma. Stitt leads among Republican voters 75% to 15%, who are expected to be about 52% of the total vote.” 

Forty-nine percent of Oklahoma voters have a favorable view of Governor Stitt, while 47% have a negative view of him. Forty-three percent have a favorable view of Joy Hofmeister, while 47% have an unfavorable view of her. Eleven percent are unsure (8%) or have never heard of (3%) Hofmeister. 

In the race for US Senate between incumbent Republican James Lankford and Democrat Madison Horn, 57% plan to support Senator Lankford and 33% support Horn. Eight percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Lankford’s support increases to 62% and Horn to 34%. 

In the special election for the US Senate, a majority of voters (56%) would vote for Republican Markwayne Mullin, while 35% support Democrat Kendra Horn. Five percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Mullin’s support increases to 59% and Horn to 36%. 

The economy is the most important issue for 43% of Oklahoma voters, followed by education (15%), and abortion access (11%). 

Kimball noted, “For voters who say the economy is the top issue in determining their vote, 70% plan to vote for Stitt. By contrast, 71% of those who say education is their determining issue and 84% of those who say abortion access is their determining issue are voring for Hofmeister.”

President Joe Biden holds a 65% disapproval among Oklahoma voters, while 27% approve of the job Biden is doing. In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, 59% of Oklahoma voters would support Trump and 30% Biden. Ten percent would vote for someone else. 

[Full results can be downloaded in this .xlsx file from Emerson]

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling survey of Oklahoma voters was conducted October 25-28, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.02 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party registration, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.