Election Predictions: here's mine -- leave yours!

Let's have another go at this. 270toWin.com has a neat feature that allows you to customize your predictions from the presidential race down to control of the state legislatures. I'm not a prophet nor the son of a prophet (Amos 7:14), but we can have a little fun together with election guesses.

How do you think the election will go? Drop your own Presidential,  U.S. Senate and Oklahoma predictions in the comments section, on the Muskogee Politico Facebook page, or on Twitter (aka X).

Here goes my take as of 7pm Monday evening.

OKLAHOMA

• Brian Bingman (R) gets slightly over 70% of the vote in the Corporation Commission race.
• Supreme Court: a narrow race, with at least one losing but not all three. All are under 54%.
• None of the Criminal Appeals Court or Civil Appeals Court judges lose, but most end up near or just under 60%.
• Presidential race: Trump (R) 65.2%, Harris (D) 31.8%, Oliver (L) 1.5%, Kennedy (I) 1.2%, Garrity (I) 0.3%. Trump gets over a million votes (after being the first to do so in 2020), but percentage-wise is just a hair under 2020 (65.37%) and 2016 (65.3%). Harris underperforms Biden 2020 (32.29%). About 1.7 million votes are cast in total, a new state record. 
• U.S. House races: All four Republican incumbents win, Bice being the closest at 56%. 
• State Senate: No change. Final result: 40 Republicans, 8 Democrats.
• State House: Republicans pick up one seat in Cleveland County. Final result: 82 Republicans, 19 Democrats.

PRESIDENT

The presidential race is on a razor's edge, with several states very plausibly going either way. 

Here's what I think is most likely. I do think Donald Trump wins. Of the swing states, he takes Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (the latter two narrowly). Harris carries Michigan by less than 1%.

Trump comes closer in Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia than expected. Harris gets Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, while Trump takes Maine's 2nd District; quirks of their unique system of awarding electoral votes by congressional district.

The race is close enough that a shift of just a few points could put Trump up to 312 electoral votes with Michigan, or Harris at 288 (winning Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). I think Georgia and North Carolina are safe for Trump.

U.S. SENATE

I have the Republicans picking up easy wins in Montana and West Virginia, while squeaking out flips in Ohio and Wisconsin. Democrats hold off strong challenges in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and a surprise showing in Virginia. Nevada and Arizona are not as close as those three.

Final score: 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats/aligned-independents (GOP +4).

U.S. HOUSE

I'm not as well versed in the House situation, which is obviously somewhat complex, given 435 different seats. I'm going to guess that the GOP picks up just a handful of seats, but it takes two weeks to find out.

Final score, 225 Republicans, 214 Democrats (GOP +4).

GOVERNORSHIPS

Republicans hold on in New Hampshire for no overall partisan change. Republicans blow what should have been an opportunity to take the North Carolina governorship.

Final score, 27 Republicans, 23 Democrats (no change).

What are your predictions? Leave a comment, or join the conversation on the Muskogee Politico Facebook page or on Twitter (aka X).