Thursday, November 07, 2024

Election Results Maps: More on Oklahoma's Trump vote

Following up on yesterday's post about Donald Trump carrying all 77 Oklahoma counties for the third time, here's another set of Election Results Maps from Tuesday. Trump scored 66.17% statewide (third highest for Republican presidential candidates, behind Reagan's 68.61% in 1984 and Nixon's 71.78% in 1972), beating Kamala Harris by 34.27%. First up, let's look at which direction Trump's 77-county win moved in each county compared to 2020.


Trump added to his 2020 lead in 58 counties, and lost ground in 20. The latter is an interesting bunch; most of his "losses" came in western counties where he had over 80% of the vote. In fact, the average Trump vote in the counties with lower 2024 percentages comes out to 80.94%.

Of note, Oklahoma County swung more in Trump's direction by 0.48% while third party candidates received 0.44% less and Harris lost 0.02% compared to Biden in 2020, while Trump slipped in Tulsa County by 0.34% (Harris increased by 0.41% while independents fell 0.49%).

Cleveland County moved to Trump by 0.86%, and Comanche County did by 3.28%. Canadian County shifted away from Trump by 2.87%, but that just barely moved him under 70% in total vote there.

In six counties where his lead shrank, it seems to have come from independents receiving lower percentages and that vote shifting to Harris.


Trump's percentage fell slightly in 14 counties (by an average of -0.67%), but increased in 63. However, the those counties where he got less percentage of the vote than in 2020? The "worst" was in Canadian County, where he fell by 1.12% to... 69.18% of the vote, "only" 40.38% ahead of Harris.


Harris beat Biden's 2020 percentage in 27 counties, mostly west of I-35. What's interesting to note is that she lost ground in areas where Democrats had show slight signs of life recently. She lost 1.2% in Comanche County (Lawton), 0.17% in Cleveland County (Norman/OU), 1.35% in Cherokee County (Tahlequah), 0.02% in Oklahoma County, 0.72% in Payne County (Stillwater/OSU). The lone positive point, really, comes in Tulsa County, where she beat Biden's 2020 vote by 0.41% (the third party vote there fell by 0.49%).

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